LATE NIGHT. SHARP LINES. REAL EDGES.
Props, alt lines, EV angles and calculated but fun lottos, all run through our own 10,000-game sims. No hype, no nonsense. Edges found after hours.
Saved in this browser only. Your teams' bets get a gold edge and move to the front.
One bet, one line. Every price here pays more than our sims say it should.
| Player | Bet | Price | Price needs | Our sims | Edge (pts) | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks HOU | 40+ rush yds | -132 | 56.9% | 58.5% | +1.6 | +2.8% | 1u |
| Jaleel McLaughlin CLE | Anytime TD | +1600 | 5.9% | 6.5% | +0.6 | +10.5% | 0.1u |
| Corey Kiner NE | Anytime TD | +1600 | 5.9% | 6.5% | +0.6 | +10.5% | 0.1u |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | 2+ TDs | +1600 | 5.9% | 6.5% | +0.6 | +10.5% | 0.1u |
| Reggie Virgil ARI unconfirmed | Anytime TD | +1900 | 5.0% | 14.8% | +9.8 | +196.0% | 0.25u |
| Khalil Shakir BUF unconfirmed | 60+ rec yds | +250 | 28.6% | 31.3% | +2.7 | +9.5% | 0.5u |
Kalshi prices from Oct 18 06:37 UTC and FanDuel lines from Saturday night. These aren't your sportsbook's prices, so check your book's line before you bet.
Three games, so the book pays the full price. Shakir's 31% is our own odds because Kalshi hasn't listed him, so most of the edge rides on that leg.
These legs hit together 2.6x as often as they would if independent. Most books price that in partly; take it only at the play-at price or better.
These legs hit together 2.6x as often as they would if independent. Most books price that in partly; take it only at the play-at price or better.
Rodgers 2+ pass TDs, Germie Bernard anytime TD, Steelers over 21.5. Needs 10.5%, our sims hit 11.6%.
Parker Washington 2+ TDs, Lawrence 2+ pass TDs, Jaguars over 22.5. Needs 3.9%, our sims hit 4.3%. A lotto: 0.1u.
| Matchup | Kickoff | Total | Home line | Home win | Team totals | Props (unlisted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ JAC | Sunday 09:30 ET | 41.8 | JAC -2.6 | 56% | HOU 19.7 · JAC 21.9 | 80 (4) |
| BAL @ CLE | Sunday 13:00 ET | 39.6 | CLE +3.2 | 38% | BAL 21.0 | 66 (9) |
| CAR @ PHI | Sunday 13:00 ET | 39.1 | PHI +3.1 | 39% | CAR 20.9 · PHI 17.2 | 63 (4) |
| CHI @ ATL | Sunday 13:00 ET | 52.8 | ATL +0.9 | 49% | CHI 26.8 · ATL 25.8 | 72 (2) |
| NO @ NYG | Sunday 13:00 ET | 45.9 | NYG -0.8 | 50% | NO 22.9 · NYG 23.0 | 80 (17) |
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New slips post late the night before each slate on X.
