The receipts
Every posted slip is logged before kickoff, graded after, and tracked in units. These numbers always cover every logged pick; anything we share elsewhere as a highlight is labeled "selected highlights". Losses stay up.
Updated
Posted board
Nothing graded yetSlips we posted on the site and X, graded at the book price they were posted at. 1 slip is waiting on games.
Sim picks
Nothing graded yetPicked automatically from the sims, graded at their play-at price. 4 slips are waiting on games.
AJ's bets
AJ's own bets, logged from sportsbook screenshots at the price on the slip, in units. Kept separate from the board record above. A live tag means it was placed in-game.
None logged yetNew bets show up here after they settle, wins and losses alike.
Model backtest
Before we post anything, the sim gets graded on games already played: Kalshi prices from about 90 minutes before kickoff in 77 NFL games, turned into random parlays and checked against what happened. This is the model's track record, separate from the posted picks above.
| Slip type | Slips | Actually hit | Our sims said | Legs treated as unrelated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All parlays | 21,732 | 12.3% | 12.0%0.3 pts off | 11.8%0.5 pts off |
| 2-leg | 9,060 | 20.3% | 19.9%0.5 pts off | 19.9%0.5 pts off |
| 3-leg | 7,660 | 8.6% | 8.2%0.5 pts off | 7.9%0.7 pts off |
| 4-leg | 5,012 | 3.2% | 3.5%0.3 pts off | 3.1%0.1 pts off |
| Same player | 3,120 | 7.6% | 8.1%0.6 pts off | 7.5%0.1 pts off |