Bears at Falcons
Sunday 13:00 ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
51%Bears win chance
ATL +0.9sim spread
52.8sim total
26.8 · 25.8CHI · ATL team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL | receiving yds Over 24.5 | 59.0% | -144 | market |
| Michael Penix Jr. ATL | passing yds Over 224.5 | 57.5% | -135 | market |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL | receptions Over 2.5 | 57.5% | -135 | market |
| Jahan Dotson ATL | receptions Over 1.5 | 57.0% | -133 | market |
| Caleb Williams CHI | passing TDs Over 1.5 | 56.5% | -130 | market |
| D'Andre Swift CHI | rush attempts Over 14.5 | 56.5% | -130 | market |
| Bijan Robinson ATL | receiving yds Over 24.5 | 56.5% | -130 | market |
| Kalif Raymond CHI | receptions Over 2.5 | 56.5% | -130 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson ATL | 69.5% | -228 | 3 |
| D'Andre Swift CHI | 59.5% | -147 | 1 |
| Drake London ATL | 44.5% | +125 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze CHI | 34.5% | +190 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III CHI | 33.5% | +199 | 1 |
| Colston Loveland CHI | 32.5% | +208 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson ATL | 26.5% | +277 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL | 23.5% | +326 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams CHI | 20.5% | +388 | 1 |
| Roschon Johnson CHI | 20.5% | +388 | 0 |
CHI · 5 games
Bears usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game23.8 #14
- Pass yds / game234.2 #18
- Rush yds / game173.2 #1
- Points allowed / game19.2 #5
- Pass yds allowed / game228.6 #12
- Rush yds allowed / game96.0 #10
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- D'Andre Swift21 carries · 1 target
- Kyle Monangai14 carries · 1 target
- Luther Burden III2 carries · 8 targets
- Colston Loveland0 carries · 6 targets
- Roschon Johnson3 carries · 2 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Caleb Williams1
- Luther Burden III1
- Kyle Monangai1
- D'Andre Swift1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | 136.3 | 0.00 | 21.3 | 65.6 | 6.0 | 15 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 15.6 | 70.8 | 3.2 | 22.8 | 4 | 40% |
| Kyle Monangai | 4 | 15.0 | 81.0 | 1.2 | 9.8 | 3 | 26% |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 13.7 | 0 | 6% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 5 | 7.0 | 22% | 4.6 | 53.2 | 1 | 29% |
| Rome Odunze | 5 | 5.8 | 18% | 3.4 | 54.6 | 0 | 14% |
| Kalif Raymond | 5 | 5.4 | 18% | 4.8 | 45.2 | 1 | 14% |
| Jahdae Walker | 2 | 1.0 | 3% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 4% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 5 | 4.6 | 14% | 2.6 | 22.0 | 0 | 21% |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 1.8 | 6% | 1.0 | 11.2 | 1 | 0% |
ATL · 5 games
Falcons usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game23.8 #15
- Pass yds / game208.2 #22
- Rush yds / game166.8 #2
- Points allowed / game24.4 #21
- Pass yds allowed / game261.4 #27
- Rush yds allowed / game80.2 #4
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Bijan Robinson20 carries · 2 targets
- Brian Robinson5 carries · 1 target
- Jahan Dotson0 carries · 2 targets
- Kyle Pitts0 carries · 2 targets
- Chris Blair0 carries · 1 target
Scored the team's first TD
- Bijan Robinson3
- Jessie Bates1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 3 | 239.7 | 1.00 | 25.7 | 67.5 | 1.3 | 12 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 20.4 | 116.0 | 5.0 | 30.4 | 5 | 80% |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 10.2 | 42.0 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4 | 20% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 7.2 | 29% | 5.4 | 97.6 | 0 | 0% |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 3.4 | 14% | 1.6 | 29.8 | 1 | 17% |
| Zachariah Branch | 5 | 1.6 | 6% | 1.4 | 9.2 | 0 | 0% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 5 | 1.4 | 6% | 0.8 | 3.4 | 0 | 8% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 3.0 | 11% | 2.0 | 21.8 | 1 | 17% |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 2.3 | 9% | 1.7 | 13.3 | 1 | 8% |
Bears vs Falcons: quick answers
Who will win Bears vs Falcons?
Our sims have the Bears winning 51% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Bears at Falcons?
The sims put the total at 52.8 points, with Bears around 26.8 and Falcons around 25.8.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Bears vs Falcons?
Bijan Robinson scores in 70% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.