Bills at Raiders
Sunday 16:25 ET · Allegiant Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
68%Bills win chance
LV +4.7sim spread
53.4sim total
29.7 · 23.9BUF · LV team totals
Our straights in this game
| Player | Bet | Price | Price needs | Our sims |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir BUF unconfirmed | 60+ rec yds | +250 | 28.6% | 31.3% |
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Nailor LV | receptions Over 1.5 | 60.5% | -153 | market |
| Ty Johnson BUF | receptions Over 1.5 | 60.0% | -150 | market |
| Kirk Cousins LV | passing TDs Over 1.5 | 59.5% | -147 | market |
| Kirk Cousins LV | interceptions Over 0.5 | 57.5% | -135 | market |
| Ty Johnson BUF | rush attempts Over 1.5 | 56.9% | -132 | our odds |
| James Cook III BUF | rush + rec yds Over 99.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Josh Allen BUF | rushing yds Over 29.5 | 55.0% | -122 | market |
| Ashton Jeanty LV | receiving yds Over 24.5 | 54.5% | -120 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III BUF | 57.5% | -135 | 0 |
| Josh Allen BUF | 57.5% | -135 | 3 |
| Ashton Jeanty LV | 53.5% | -115 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers LV | 48.5% | +106 | 1 |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | 33.5% | +199 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir BUF | 28.5% | +251 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker LV | 23.5% | +326 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman BUF | 22.5% | +344 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer LV | 22.5% | +344 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer BUF | 17.1% | +487 | 0 |
BUF · 5 games
Bills usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game32.8 #2
- Pass yds / game249.8 #12
- Rush yds / game158.0 #5
- Points allowed / game28.2 #28
- Pass yds allowed / game295.8 #31
- Rush yds allowed / game108.2 #15
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- James Cook18 carries · 2 targets
- Josh Allen13 carries · 0 targets
- Khalil Shakir0 carries · 5 targets
- Keon Coleman0 carries · 4 targets
- Dawson Knox0 carries · 3 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Josh Allen3
- James Cook2
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 5 | 249.8 | 1.40 | 27.6 | 65.9 | 47.8 | 23 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 5 | 19.0 | 106.4 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 5 | 56% |
| Ray Davis | 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 8.8 | 0 | 0% |
| Frank Gore Jr. | 1 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5.2 | 20% | 3.6 | 51.2 | 0 | 23% |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5.0 | 18% | 3.0 | 44.5 | 1 | 14% |
| Keon Coleman | 5 | 3.6 | 13% | 3.0 | 44.8 | 2 | 18% |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 3.0 | 10% | 1.0 | 26.7 | 2 | 5% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 4.2 | 16% | 3.2 | 55.4 | 1 | 9% |
| Dawson Knox | 5 | 1.8 | 8% | 1.4 | 7.2 | 1 | 14% |
LV · 5 games
Raiders usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game26.4 #8
- Pass yds / game263.4 #8
- Rush yds / game82.0 #28
- Points allowed / game25.8 #23
- Pass yds allowed / game253.2 #25
- Rush yds allowed / game140.6 #29
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Ashton Jeanty16 carries · 7 targets
- Brock Bowers0 carries · 5 targets
- Cody White0 carries · 5 targets
- Mike Washington Jr.4 carries · 0 targets
- Malik Benson0 carries · 3 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Jack Bech1
- Tre Tucker1
- Michael Mayer1
- Ian Thomas1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 253.8 | 2.40 | 34.4 | 65.1 | -0.4 | 28 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 5 | 17.6 | 58.2 | 6.0 | 43.0 | 2 | 73% |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 5 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 | 18% |
| Dylan Laube | 5 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 1 | 5% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 5 | 5.6 | 16% | 3.8 | 54.8 | 1 | 7% |
| Cody White | 5 | 2.8 | 8% | 1.4 | 21.6 | 3 | 19% |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 3.7 | 13% | 1.7 | 17.3 | 0 | 4% |
| Malik Benson | 5 | 1.6 | 5% | 0.4 | 2.4 | 0 | 11% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 3 | 11.3 | 31% | 8.0 | 104.0 | 3 | 19% |
| Michael Mayer | 5 | 5.0 | 14% | 4.2 | 34.2 | 1 | 7% |
Bills vs Raiders: quick answers
Who will win Bills vs Raiders?
Our sims have the Bills winning 68% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Bills at Raiders?
The sims put the total at 53.4 points, with Bills around 29.7 and Raiders around 23.9.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Bills vs Raiders?
James Cook III scores in 57% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.