Chargers at Chiefs
Sunday 16:25 ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
78%Chiefs win chance
KC -7.4sim spread
41.4sim total
16.6 · 24.8LAC · KC team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert LAC | passing TDs Over 0.5 | 62.5% | -167 | market |
| Jalen Royals KC | receptions Over 1.5 | 60.5% | -153 | market |
| Brenen Thompson LAC | receptions Over 0.5 | 57.8% | -137 | our odds |
| Justin Herbert LAC | completions Over 17.5 | 56.0% | -127 | market |
| Justin Herbert LAC | rush attempts Over 3.5 | 56.0% | -127 | market |
| Justin Herbert LAC | interceptions Over 0.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Kenneth Walker III KC | rush attempts Over 18.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Omarion Hampton LAC | rushing yds Over 29.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III KC | 60.5% | -153 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce KC | 37.5% | +167 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy KC | 35.5% | +182 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton LAC | 24.5% | +308 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey LAC | 19.5% | +413 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes KC | 18.0% | +456 | 1 |
| Jalen Royals KC | 17.5% | +471 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston LAC | 17.5% | +471 | 0 |
| Noah Gray KC | 15.5% | +545 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar LAC | 14.5% | +590 | 0 |
LAC · 5 games
Chargers usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game16.8 #30
- Pass yds / game187.4 #28
- Rush yds / game128.2 #9
- Points allowed / game25.8 #22
- Pass yds allowed / game205.0 #6
- Rush yds allowed / game118.6 #21
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Omarion Hampton14 carries · 0 targets
- Justin Herbert5 carries · 1 target
- Keaton Mitchell3 carries · 1 target
- Tre Harris0 carries · 3 targets
- Oronde Gadsden II0 carries · 3 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Omarion Hampton2
- Keaton Mitchell1
- Kimani Vidal1
- Hayden Rucci1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 187.4 | 1.00 | 28.6 | 59.4 | 28.4 | 14 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 5 | 14.6 | 54.2 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 3 | 61% |
| Keaton Mitchell | 5 | 6.6 | 27.0 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 1 | 13% |
| Kimani Vidal | 4 | 3.5 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 2 | 4% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Harris | 5 | 5.0 | 18% | 3.0 | 45.0 | 0 | 21% |
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 4.8 | 17% | 1.8 | 27.0 | 0 | 0% |
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 4.2 | 15% | 3.0 | 45.8 | 1 | 14% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 1.7 | 7% | 0.7 | 7.3 | 0 | 0% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden II | 5 | 3.2 | 11% | 1.8 | 17.2 | 1 | 21% |
| David Njoku | 2 | 4.0 | 15% | 3.0 | 33.5 | 0 | 7% |
KC · 4 games
Chiefs usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game29.5 #5
- Pass yds / game259.2 #10
- Rush yds / game162.2 #4
- Points allowed / game19.2 #7
- Pass yds allowed / game229.0 #14
- Rush yds allowed / game92.8 #7
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Kenneth Walker III19 carries · 6 targets
- Patrick Mahomes5 carries · 0 targets
- Xavier Worthy0 carries · 4 targets
- Rashee Rice0 carries · 4 targets
- Tyquan Thornton0 carries · 2 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Patrick Mahomes1
- Travis Kelce1
- Kenneth Walker III1
- Tyquan Thornton1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 259.2 | 2.25 | 32.0 | 64.1 | 10.2 | 26 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 4 | 21.8 | 134.2 | 4.8 | 21.0 | 6 | 76% |
| Emmett Johnson | 4 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 1.2 | 18.5 | 0 | 4% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 5.5 | 19% | 3.5 | 33.2 | 1 | 18% |
| Rashee Rice | 3 | 5.7 | 20% | 4.3 | 63.3 | 1 | 18% |
| Tyquan Thornton | 4 | 3.8 | 13% | 2.8 | 54.8 | 2 | 9% |
| Jalen Royals | 4 | 1.2 | 4% | 0.8 | 4.2 | 1 | 5% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5.5 | 17% | 4.0 | 61.5 | 2 | 9% |
| Noah Gray | 4 | 2.0 | 8% | 1.5 | 15.2 | 0 | 9% |
Chargers vs Chiefs: quick answers
Who will win Chargers vs Chiefs?
Our sims have the Chiefs winning 78% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Chargers at Chiefs?
The sims put the total at 41.4 points, with Chargers around 16.6 and Chiefs around 24.8.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Chargers vs Chiefs?
Kenneth Walker III scores in 60% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.