Jets at Patriots
Sunday 13:00 ET · Gillette Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
76%Patriots win chance
NE -7.1sim spread
42.9sim total
17.0 · 25.8NYJ · NE team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas NE | receptions Over 1.5 | 61.5% | -160 | market |
| Efton Chism III NE | receptions Over 1.5 | 60.0% | -150 | our odds |
| Romeo Doubs NE | receiving yds Over 24.5 | 59.0% | -144 | market |
| Mason Taylor NYJ | receptions Over 1.5 | 58.5% | -141 | market |
| Drake Maye NE | passing TDs Over 1.5 | 58.0% | -138 | market |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE | receptions Over 2.5 | 57.5% | -135 | market |
| Drake Maye NE | passing yds Over 224.5 | 56.5% | -130 | market |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE | rush attempts Over 13.5 | 56.5% | -130 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE | 51.5% | -106 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen NYJ | 41.5% | +141 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson NYJ | 31.5% | +217 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry NE | 27.5% | +264 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs NE | 25.5% | +292 | 1 |
| Drake Maye NE | 22.5% | +344 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE | 17.5% | +471 | 1 |
| Eli Raridon NE | 15.5% | +545 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas NE | 14.5% | +590 | 1 |
| Efton Chism III NE | 11.5% | +770 | 0 |
NYJ · 5 games
Jets usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game18.6 #28
- Pass yds / game216.8 #20
- Rush yds / game94.0 #22
- Points allowed / game19.2 #6
- Pass yds allowed / game195.4 #3
- Rush yds allowed / game118.0 #19
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Braelon Allen5 carries · 4 targets
- Breece Hall8 carries · 0 targets
- Garrett Wilson0 carries · 3 targets
- Geno Smith3 carries · 0 targets
- Kenyon Sadiq1 carry · 1 target
Scored the team's first TD
- Kenyon Sadiq2
- Braelon Allen1
- Isaiah Williams1
- Garrett Wilson1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 5 | 216.8 | 1.20 | 29.4 | 69.4 | 8.6 | 15 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | 5 | 11.4 | 47.2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 2 | 29% |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 17.0 | 54.3 | 3.3 | 34.0 | 1 | 47% |
| Isaiah Davis | 4 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0 | 0% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 8.4 | 30% | 6.2 | 74.8 | 3 | 21% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 7.5 | 23% | 4.5 | 61.5 | 0 | 7% |
| Isaiah Williams | 5 | 2.8 | 11% | 2.2 | 30.2 | 1 | 7% |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 3.0 | 10% | 2.0 | 26.0 | 0 | 0% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon Sadiq | 5 | 4.2 | 16% | 2.8 | 29.2 | 2 | 7% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3 | 2.7 | 8% | 2.7 | 16.0 | 1 | 14% |
NE · 5 games
Patriots usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game22.0 #19
- Pass yds / game254.8 #11
- Rush yds / game127.2 #10
- Points allowed / game18.8 #4
- Pass yds allowed / game222.6 #9
- Rush yds allowed / game90.8 #6
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Rhamondre Stevenson5 carries · 2 targets
- Romeo Doubs0 carries · 5 targets
- Drake Maye4 carries · 0 targets
- Mack Hollins0 carries · 4 targets
- Hunter Henry0 carries · 4 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Eli Raridon1
- TreVeyon Henderson1
- Romeo Doubs1
- DeMario Douglas1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 5 | 245.6 | 1.60 | 30.2 | 65.6 | 32.2 | 25 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 11.4 | 45.4 | 3.8 | 22.2 | 2 | 38% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 4 | 10.5 | 40.8 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 1 | 15% |
| Corey Kiner | 5 | 4.0 | 16.2 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 0 | 15% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 4.6 | 15% | 2.6 | 43.8 | 2 | 21% |
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 4.4 | 15% | 2.6 | 29.4 | 2 | 12% |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5.0 | 17% | 3.8 | 52.2 | 0 | 17% |
| Efton Chism III | 4 | 3.2 | 10% | 2.2 | 24.5 | 1 | 4% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 3.8 | 13% | 3.0 | 35.4 | 1 | 17% |
| Eli Raridon | 4 | 2.2 | 7% | 2.0 | 25.2 | 1 | 12% |
Jets vs Patriots: quick answers
Who will win Jets vs Patriots?
Our sims have the Patriots winning 76% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Jets at Patriots?
The sims put the total at 42.9 points, with Jets around 17.0 and Patriots around 25.8.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Jets vs Patriots?
Rhamondre Stevenson scores in 52% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.