Texans at Jaguars
Sunday 09:30 ET · Wembley Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
56%Jaguars win chance
JAC -2.6sim spread
41.8sim total
19.7 · 21.9HOU · JAC team totals
Our straights in this game
| Player | Bet | Price | Price needs | Our sims |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks HOU | 40+ rush yds | -132 | 56.9% | 58.5% |
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Boerkircher JAC | receptions Over 0.5 | 60.5% | -153 | market |
| Dalton Schultz HOU | receiving yds Over 24.5 | 59.5% | -147 | market |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAC | receptions Over 1.5 | 58.5% | -141 | market |
| Kayshon Boutte HOU | receptions Over 1.5 | 58.5% | -141 | market |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAC | receiving yds Over 14.5 | 56.5% | -130 | market |
| Brenton Strange JAC | receptions Over 3.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Jaylin Noel HOU | receiving yds Over 14.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. HOU | receptions Over 1.5 | 54.5% | -120 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks HOU | 41.5% | +141 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAC | 39.5% | +153 | 1 |
| Nico Collins HOU | 34.5% | +190 | 1 |
| Parker Washington JAC | 34.5% | +190 | 2 |
| Jakobi Meyers JAC | 21.5% | +365 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange JAC | 20.5% | +388 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz HOU | 20.5% | +388 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence JAC | 16.5% | +506 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAC | 15.5% | +545 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAC | 14.5% | +590 | 1 |
HOU · 5 games
Texans usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game22.0 #20
- Pass yds / game280.4 #5
- Rush yds / game79.0 #31
- Points allowed / game22.4 #15
- Pass yds allowed / game256.2 #26
- Rush yds allowed / game78.4 #3
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Woody Marks8 carries · 3 targets
- David Montgomery9 carries · 1 target
- Nico Collins0 carries · 3 targets
- Dalton Schultz0 carries · 3 targets
- Jaylin Noel0 carries · 2 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- David Montgomery1
- Foster Moreau1
- Nico Collins1
- C.J. Stroud1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 5 | 280.4 | 1.20 | 37.0 | 64.3 | 14.2 | 20 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 5 | 10.4 | 27.6 | 1.4 | 13.4 | 3 | 50% |
| Woody Marks | 5 | 8.6 | 29.8 | 2.6 | 10.8 | 2 | 44% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Hutchinson | 5 | 6.2 | 19% | 3.2 | 46.2 | 0 | 6% |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 8.3 | 26% | 6.3 | 83.0 | 3 | 17% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 5 | 3.6 | 11% | 2.4 | 30.6 | 0 | 11% |
| Jaylin Noel | 5 | 3.4 | 10% | 2.6 | 45.4 | 1 | 11% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 6.2 | 16% | 4.8 | 48.8 | 0 | 17% |
| Foster Moreau | 5 | 2.4 | 8% | 1.8 | 13.0 | 1 | 11% |
JAC · 5 games
Jaguars usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game24.6 #12
- Pass yds / game234.8 #17
- Rush yds / game114.2 #15
- Points allowed / game14.0 #2
- Pass yds allowed / game277.2 #30
- Rush yds allowed / game63.8 #1
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Bhayshul Tuten12 carries · 1 target
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.7 carries · 0 targets
- Parker Washington0 carries · 6 targets
- Josh Cameron0 carries · 4 targets
- Brian Thomas Jr.0 carries · 4 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Parker Washington2
- Bhayshul Tuten1
- Josh Cameron1
- Brian Thomas Jr.1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 234.8 | 2.00 | 28.6 | 67.1 | 11.8 | 26 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | 5 | 16.4 | 69.8 | 2.0 | 15.6 | 2 | 60% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 5 | 5.6 | 22.6 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2 | 35% |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 | 0% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 5 | 7.0 | 25% | 4.4 | 70.4 | 4 | 24% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 3.6 | 14% | 3.0 | 40.4 | 2 | 16% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 5 | 3.4 | 13% | 1.8 | 21.0 | 1 | 16% |
| Josh Cameron | 5 | 2.4 | 8% | 1.6 | 23.4 | 2 | 16% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange | 5 | 5.2 | 19% | 4.2 | 47.0 | 1 | 12% |
| Nate Boerkircher | 4 | 1.5 | 6% | 1.0 | 11.0 | 0 | 4% |
Texans vs Jaguars: quick answers
Who will win Texans vs Jaguars?
Our sims have the Jaguars winning 56% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Texans at Jaguars?
The sims put the total at 41.8 points, with Texans around 19.7 and Jaguars around 21.9.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Texans vs Jaguars?
Woody Marks scores in 42% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.