Parlay Sim Lab
Pick legs from one game and see how often they all hit together across 10,000 simulated games. Single-leg odds come from Kalshi's prices, or from our own player model (marked "our odds") where Kalshi hasn't listed a prop yet. How stats move together comes from NFL box scores since 2023, tested on past seasons.
Updated
How it works: each prop's chance of hitting is read off Kalshi's ladder of prices, so every single leg matches the market. Lines between Kalshi's strikes are marked "est." and filled in smoothly. Correlations come from nflverse game logs (2023 to now), grouped by role (QB, RB1, WR1, TE1 and so on) for teammates and opponents, plus how each role moves with the score margin and total.
Our odds: when Kalshi hasn't listed a player or stat yet, we estimate it from recent share of targets and carries, the team's expected pass and run volume given the spread and total, and per-play efficiency, shrunk toward the position average. Players on the injury report show a tag; players ruled out are dropped and their usage goes to teammates.
Limits: this is not a play-by-play sim. Treat hit rates built from fewer than 100 winning sims as rough. Prices go stale, so check your book's line before you bet. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.